Morning Brief FM | January 16, 2025
Advertisements
The financial landscape has recently experienced significant shifts, primarily driven by the latest consumer price index (CPI) data from the United StatesThis data has rekindled expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to substantial movements in both the U.Sstock and bond marketsThe three major U.Sstock indices closed up by at least 1%, marking their largest single-day increases in two months, with the Nasdaq composite witnessing a remarkable jump of over 2%. Notably, Tesla shares surged by 8%, while Nvidia increased by more than 3%. Following their earnings reports, leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo saw their stocks rise by over 6% each.
In the aftermath of the CPI release, U.STreasury yields plummeted by more than 10 basis points, causing the dollar to decline sharply to a one-week lowThe Japanese yen gained over 1%, reaching its highest level in nearly a month as gold prices expanded their gains, culminating in a new monthly high
While offshore yuan briefly broke the 7.34 mark against the dollar, it eventually retreated by more than a hundred points.
The commodities sector also responded dynamically, with oil prices experiencing a robust reboundWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil jumped over 3%, breaking the $80 barrier for the first time in five months.
Turning to the Asian markets, trading became soft, characterized by a decline in A-sharesThe startup board shrank nearly 2%, while stocks related to the social media platform Xiaohongshu continued to rise significantlyConversely, Hong Kong stocks experienced an uptick, along with a notable surge in 30-year government bonds.
The U.SDecember CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectationsHowever, core CPI unexpectedly cooled, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates falling short of expectationsFederal Reserve officials suggest that while inflation is anticipated to continue its downward trend, economic forecasts remain uncertain, making future interest rate policies data-dependent
- 2025 Outlook on Trade, Investment, and Consumption
- Boosting Multi-Tiered Capital Market Services
- OPEC Predicts Rising Oil Demand
- A Night of Turmoil for the US Stock Market?
- The Opening Salvo of Earnings Season
The so-called "New Federal Reserve News Agency" indicates a lack of clarity in the December CPI data, suggesting that the Fed may maintain its current stance in their forthcoming meeting.
Goldman Sachs has issued predictions regarding the non-farm payroll data set to be released on February 7, forecasting the largest adjustment in historyThe bank expects an increase of 2.3 million in household employment figures.
From the semiconductor sector, Nomura analysts have reported significant cuts in orders for TSMC's advanced packaging CoWoS by Nvidia due to reduced capacity demandsConversely, Morgan Stanley indicated that these order reductions did not come from Nvidia but rather from other downstream chip manufacturers, with Nvidia stepping in to accommodate the idle capacity.
This earnings season has kicked off with Morgan Stanley reporting record annual net profits, while Goldman Sachs saw its Q4 net profits double
Additionally, BlackRock reported record client funds for the yearThese strong financial results have provided a solid foundation for market optimism.
The Bank of Japan's governor has stated that a decision on interest rates will be made in the coming week, prompting a short-term appreciation of the yen and driving two-year Japanese bond yields to their highest levels in seventeen years.
In the closing of U.Smarkets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.65%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.83%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.45%. Meanwhile, European equities also gained ground, with the European STOXX 600 index climbing by 1.33%, Germany's DAX 30 increasing by 1.5%, and France's CAC 40 rising by 1.21%. In contrast, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite falling by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component dropping by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Board declining by 1.82%.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark U.S
ten-year Treasury note stood around 4.65% toward the end of the trading session, having decreased about 14 basis points during the dayThe two-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, hovered around 4.26%, down approximately 11 basis points.
In commodities trading, February WTI crude oil futures closed up by 3.28% at $80.04 per barrel, while brent crude for March delivery settled at $82.03, a rise of 2.64%. Additionally, February gold futures increased by 1.3% to $2717.8 per ounceLondon aluminium rose over 1.6%, while lead dipped by nearly 1.6%.
Looking at the macroeconomic landscape globally, concerns surrounding a technology sector dominance have intensifiedThe Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF attracted about $14.4 billion in the latter half of last year, reaching a total inflow of $17 billion for 2023, reflecting investor concern about concentrated market risk.
The U.K
saw a surprise slowdown in December CPI, with the probability of an interest rate cut in February rising to 80%. Year-over-year, the CPI increased by 2.5%, falling short of both the prior month and economist expectations, further indicating a moderate inflation environment.
On another note, Germany's economy has entered its second consecutive year of recession, projecting a decline of 0.2% in GDP for 2024 after a 0.3% fall in 2023. The German central bank warns that a potential trade war with the U.Scould exacerbate this downturn.
Meanwhile, in the energy sector, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its forecasts, indicating a slowdown in excess oil supplies by 2025. OPEC too anticipates stable growth in oil demand, driven by rising consumption in India and China, with predictions of robust consumption increases in both 2023 and 2024.
Finally, in the realm of technology, Microsoft is making strides in the enterprise AI assistant space, enhancing the Microsoft 365 Copilot Chat with GPT-4 capabilities