2025 Outlook on Trade, Investment, and Consumption
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On January 15, 2024, the State Council Information Office of China hosted a significant press conference titled "Achievements in China's High-Quality Economic Development." The event featured senior officials from the Ministry of Commerce addressing various trending topics such as consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment, providing insights to the public and investors alike.
Li Gang, the Director of the Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, emphasized the robust outlook for China’s consumer market in 2024. He stated that the market is expected to maintain a stable trajectory, encompassing notable trends such as a surge in bulk consumption, a strong demand in service consumption, an abundance of new consumer highlights, and invigorated rural consumption dynamicsThese factors reflect a positive sentiment among consumers and signal a resilient economic foundation.
During the conference, Li outlined the underlying strengths of the Chinese economy, citing its solid foundation, numerous advantages, resilience, and vast potential
These characteristics collectively suggest that the conditions supporting long-term growth remain unchangedWith each initiative aimed at boosting consumption showing tangible effects, he forecasted stable growth for the consumer market.
Li introduced a comprehensive framework consisting of five key measures to further unlock China’s consumption potential:
Firstly, the government plans to reinforce and expand recycling initiatives, particularly in outdated consumer goods, to stabilize essential consumption levelsBeginning this week, officials are set to release detailed implementation guidelines for subsidies that encourage replacing old vehicles, household appliances, home renovations, as well as electric bicycles and digital products like smartphones.
Secondly, enhancing service consumption is on the agenda, aimed at optimizing the consumption structureThrough a series of cooperative policies, actions will revolve around improving service quality and accessibility
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Events such as the "Service Consumption Season" and "Chinese Culinary Gathering" will be initiated, while also easing restrictions in key sectors including telecommunications, education, and healthcare to broaden service supply.
The next stride involves innovative avenues for hosting consumption-promoting events, designed to heighten the consumer enthusiasmFocus will be on critical periods and preferred product categories, creating engaging activities that resonate well with the publicSuch events aim to bring vibrancy into the marketplace and encourage spending.
Growing new forms of consumption stands as the fourth initiative to boost market vitalityBy guiding local economies to adopt tailored development strategies, efforts will focus on expanding digital, green, and health-related consumption sectorsThe creation of diverse consumption scenarios will be pursued to cultivate new growth engines.
Lastly, improvements in consumption conditions and environments will be prioritized
There will be an accelerated effort to nurture international consumption centers within cities, enhancing the international market appealInfrastructure upgrades in pedestrian streets and commercial zones will receive attention, alongside initiatives supporting community conveniences tailored to the elderly and childrenThere is also a three-year plan for enhancing county-level commercial ventures, intending to ease the consumption experiences of urban and rural residents.
Looking ahead at 2024, China's foreign trade—projected at 43.85 trillion RMB—exhibits a 5% year-on-year increase, underscoring the sector's resilience amidst a fluctuating global landscapeNevertheless, challenges lay ahead, particularly concerning external economic environments.
According to Meng Yue, the head of the Department of Foreign Trade at the Ministry of Commerce, current global economic momentum is considerably weak, experiencing surges in unilateralism, protectionism, and rising trade barriers, all while geopolitical tensions escalate
He warned that this external atmosphere poses considerable challenges not only for China but for economies worldwide.
To stabilize foreign trade by 2025, Meng highlighted the importance of accelerating high-level opening-up policies while emphasizing the significance of aligning with high-quality development trajectoriesHe outlined four core strategies to promote foreign trade stability.
Firstly, the government will prioritize the implementation of practical policy measuresCollaboration with local entities will focus on ensuring the effective execution of policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade, assisting enterprises in maintaining and securing orders, and mitigating roadblocks in the process.
Secondly, nurturing new drivers of foreign trade will be criticalEfforts will be made to expand the utilization of digital trade documentation, promote digitalization across the entire trade chain, and enhance green and low-carbon capabilities in foreign trade businesses
Furthermore, support will extend to entities organizing cross-border e-commerce expos and supply-demand matching events to better connect market needs to supply.
Thirdly, enterprise service guarantees will remain integral to policy efforts, with a commitment to facilitating training sessions focused on green trade and cross-border e-commerceThe aim is to provide comprehensive trade guidance while expanding high-standard free trade networks globally.
In line with expanding imports, initiatives such as the China International Import Expo will be leveraged to promote imports effectively, fostering innovation in national import trade promotionThe goal is to open markets further, to unearth the potential for imports, thus turning China's vast market into substantial opportunities for global trade partners.
As for the services sector, a rapid trajectory of growth is anticipated
Meng projected that the total volume of service trade imports and exports could break the USD 1 trillion mark in 2024, a notable milestone for the sector, proving the increasing significance of services in bolstering economic performance.
In her address, Li Yongzhen, the Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations at the Ministry of Commerce, indicated that efforts to enhance foreign capital attraction would continuously evolve through a dual strategy of simplifying the negative list approach while augmenting the business environmentThis reflects a commitment to expanding systematic openness gradually.
China aims to sharpen its attractiveness for foreign investments through ongoing promotional activities and to expand its reach in sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and educationBuilding on the "Invest in China" campaign, strategies will focus on widening investment channels while elevating the efficiency of promotional platforms.
In summary, the press conference articulated a comprehensive narrative of China's economic aspirations for 2024. The focus on enhancing consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, nurturing new market drivers, and promoting service sector growth all indicate a determined approach towards fostering a resilient and dynamic economic future despite global challenges.